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Will recession be over by autumn?

June 18, 2009 by admin  
Filed under News, News-Banking

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It has been claimed in a recently released report that the UK industry could have pulled itself out of recession by as early as autumn of this year, after figures showed that there was an improvement in activity in May compared to April.

Figures were released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supplies, and this showed that there was an activity index reading of 45.4 in May compared to a reading of 43.1 in April.

Officials from CIPS have stated that this suggests that industry output had stopped falling, and that it could stabilise as early as autumn of this year. If the activity index goes up to a score of 50 then this means that a corner has been turned and that the industry sector is starting to see growth again.

A number of have said that the figures are encouraging and could indicate marked improvement in the industry sector before the end of the year.

However, some economists have said that whilst the figures do make for encouraging reading there could still be a long way to go before any signs of recovery are seen. One leading economist from Global Insight, Howard Archer, stated: ‘Nevertheless, manufacturers still face serious handicaps and actual sustainable growth in the sector may yet be some way off.’

Another industry expert said: ‘The balance is still consistent with annual falls in output of around 5%, but this would be a big improvement on the double digit declines of late. Overall, further evidence is pointing to a more modest drop in GDP in Q2 than in Q1 – but still a long way to go before a sustained recovery looks likely.’

Tags: output, Business Finance, industry officials, activity index reading, recession, score, double digit declines, CIPS

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Comments

One Response to “Will recession be over by autumn?”
  1. Scopulus says:
    June 26, 2009 at 9:52 am

    I think by the end of the year we will be in a better position overall even if its marginally. Recovery is a slow process and the key indicator will be the Christmas figures. If these are good then it will be all over the news and after the festive season people will be more confident.

    Lets hope we get a good buildup to this.

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