Inflation Report Signals Further Rate Rise

The Bank of England has given clear signals that interest rates may have to rise yet again to make sure that it keeps inflation under control. Homeowners will be dreading the possibility of yet another rate rise as they have seen five quarter point rises already ion the past 12 months.

Experts now believe that the rise will come sooner rather than later after the Governor of the Bank, Mervyn King, said that he believed the turmoil in credit markets – set off by the sub-prime crisis in the US – was far from being an international financial crisis. Given that comment, experts think that he will not be afraid of recommending a further rate rise in the UK in the near future. Indeed, there are some doom-mongers who suggest that an interest rate of 6.5% - or even higher – could be reached.

A quarter point rise on a mortgage of £110,000 would mean an increase in monthly repayments of over £16, and on a mortgage of £200,000 the increase would be £30 a month.

A further quarter point rise now looks likely in September. Mr King said: “[We] cannot be sure if what we’re seeing so far foreshadows a more disruptive move on the markets or whether there’s a more gradual easing of pressure that allows credit spreads to widen to more sensible levels. So it’s impossible at this stage to judge how large and how persistent the tightening of credit conditions is likely to be.”

Adding that he did not see the recent events, which have seen some US investment banks in trouble because of defaults on loans and some big takeovers postponed, as an international financial crisis, he went on: “We are seeing signs of bad loans arising clearly in the US, but I don’t think we are seeing signs of these bad loans in other markets. The developments in [the widening of] spreads is a more realistic pricing of risks which we welcome.”

Mr King said that it was not the duty of central banks to give protection to any financial institutions if they get in trouble for poor lending practices.

The Bank’s quarterly inflation report said that inflation would come back down to 2% if interest rates rose according to market expectations, and that would be one more quarter point rise before the end of the year. It is difficult to see the Monetary Policy Committee waiting too long before implementing the rise. The report said that risks to inflation remained on the upside but not as much as a few months ago. It now expects economic growth to dip to 2.5% in the next two years from about 3% now.

Mr King was concerned that official figures did not accurately measure the strength of the economy, and may be revised upwards. The near term outlook for inflation had the bad news of higher food prices from flooding influencing it.

Inflation was also under threat from rising oil prices and potentially increasing wages demands, but Mr King did note that consumer spending was cooling. However, there has been surprise at the resilience of consumer and housing markets despite the five rises since last August.

Mr King insisted that 6% was not yet a done deal.

Tom Smith
1st October 2007