Predictions of further interest rate rises fall

Earlier this year, following July’s 0.25% interest rate rise in the UK, many economists and analysts in the UK predicted that there would be another interest rate rise before the end of the year.

Interest rates have gone up five times since August of last year, with the series of 0.25% interest rate rises taking the base rate from 4.5% to 5.75%. Another 0.25% rise, as predicted by these industry experts, would have taken the base rate to 6% – it is already at its highest in over six years.

However, many industry experts appear to have changed their minds in light of the current turmoil that is hitting the mortgage markets, and following the credit crunch that is having global repercussions the number of analysts predicting a further interest rate rise has fallen. According to reports only one fifth of economists and analysts now believe that the interest rates will rise again this year.

The drop in the number of experts predicting another rise is in part the result of a recent statement that was released by the Monetary Policy Committee following its last meeting early in September, where it was decided that interest rates would remain on hold. The MPC claimed in its statement that its two main reasons for leaving interest rates on hold were that CPI inflation was now within government targets, and also because of the effect that the credit crunch could have upon the industry.

Howard Archer, an economist at Global Insight, stated: “We now no longer expect interest rates to rise to 6 percent in the fourth quarter, but instead anticipate that the Bank of England will sit tight for an extended period. We suspect that growth will lose momentum over the coming months, and that underlying inflationary pressures will gradually abate. This will become even more likely the longer that the current financial market turmoil continues.”

Tom Smith
16th October 2007

Tags: bank, policy, committee, fall, england, rates, monetary, interest