Three interest rate cuts predicted for 2008

According to city economists homeowners in the UK will be able to enjoy easier financial management next year with predictions that interest rates will fall two or three times over the course of the year.

Since August 2006 interest rates have risen five times, each time by 0.25%, and this took the base rate from 4.5% to 5.75% in under a year. Since July of this year interest rates have remained stable at 5.75%, despite calls from some agencies for the Bank of England to cut rates.

Economists are now predicting that interest rates could fall back to 5% next year through a series of interest rate cuts. Some economists predict that there may be one interest rate cut by the end of this year and a further one early or mid next year. However, the timing of interest rate cuts will be dependant upon data reflecting continued economic slowdown. GDP growth forecasts have been downgraded for next year, and this is because of factors such as the series of interest rate rises, volatile financial markets, and the current strength of the pound.

One economist stated: ‘Crucially the Bank has validated market expectations that we are going to see two or three interest cuts in 2008.’

Another said: ‘The report is markedly more doveish and indicates that at least two interest rate cuts are likely.’

Any interest rate cuts are likely to be welcomes by homeowners, who have seen their repayment rocket over the past year, with interest rate rises adding hundreds of pounds to the mortgage repayments of some homeowners. There is also set to be financial turmoil for those due to come of cheap fixed rate mortgages deals over the coming months, and an interest rate cut could help to ease the financial impact.

Alan Wright
24th November 2007

Tags: deals, cuts, cheaper, interest, Loans

Fewer analysts predict a cut in interest rates in November

Following the last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in October, 14 out of 52 economists that were polled by Reuters expected interest rates to fall in November.

However, according to the latest poll the number of analysts that are predicting a fall in interest rates has now fallen, with just 5 out of 60 analysts polled expecting the Bank of England to cut interest rates by a quarter point. It is thought that healthy economic growth could have something to do with the change in the level of predictions in terms of whether interest rates will fall.

Out of the 60 analysts and economists that were polled by Reuters at the end of October 55 predicted that after the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on November 8th interest rates will remain on hold at 5.75%. Rates have gone up five times between August 2006 and July 2007, each time by 0.25%, which took the rate from 4.5% to 5.75%. However, since July of this year interest rates have remained stable at 5.75%, which is thought to be partly due to the possible effects of the credit crunch.

The poll also showed that 47 out of 59 economists that were polled expected interest rates to fall by at least a quarter point by the first quarter of 2008. Many had predicted that this interest rate would come in November’s meeting. However, these predictions fell after it was revealed that the British economy grew at its fastest rate in three years in the third quarter of this year.

One industry professional stated: “We would expect them to continue to bide their time and allow more data to come in on the extent of any economic slowdown before changing rates. With the UK economy as a whole apparently still growing slightly above trend in Q3, there is certainly no immediate need for such a cut.”  

Tom Smith

Tags: november, rates, bank, cuts, england

Over one thousand jobs to go at Barclays

Over one thousand people employed by Barclays Bank will be losing their jobs in the next three years, as the bank prepares to move its Poole based processing and IT office.

Bank officials have announced that eleven hundred people will have to lose their jobs over a three year period, cutting the workforce at the office from nineteen hundred to just eight hundred. The bank plans to mover operations to a smaller building in the area.

One union official from Unite stated: ‘We are very concerned at today’s announcement which will mean a large reduction of jobs in Poole. Unite does however have robust agreements in place and the bank’s plans are spread over the next three years, so we will be working with the bank to ensure the maximum number of redeployments and voluntary redundancies. We do welcome the news that Barclays will have a new building in the area, albeit smaller, so ending speculation that they may pull out of the area altogether.’

A council official also commented, stating: ‘We are saddened to hear of the job losses at Barclays and will be working closely with them and local agencies to offer as much support as possible to those staff affected. Although the job losses will impact the town in some areas, we will be doing everything in our power to counter the effects. We are continuing to work with Barclays to find suitable sites in Poole that will meet their business requirements and are pleased that they are committed to staying in the local area.’

The Chief Executive of the local council added: ‘The job losses are very regrettable. We will be working with Barclays to set up a strong and helpful network amongst local business and employment organisations to support those affected through information, advice, job searches and retraining opportunities.’

Tom Smith
23rd May 2007

Tags: employment, jobs, barclays, business, losses, union, cuts, IT