Economists give views on where interest rates will go next

There was a sigh of relief across the UK earlier this week when the Bank of England announced that interest rates had been cut by 0.25% from 5.75% to 5.5%.

There are now mixed predictions with regards to what will happen with the interest rate next, with some predicting that 2008 will see another one or two interest rate cuts and others believing that the interest rate could fall as low as 4% in 2008. Financial experts from This is Money interviewed some economists to get their views.

An official from Investec stated: ‘Evidently the MPC is taking much more note of recent signs of a slowdown in the economy and its fears over the possible effects of the credit squeeze have begun to crystallize. The question obviously now is whether rates come down again and if so how quickly. The outlook is very uncertain. We are pencilling two further 25 basis-point cuts over the first half of next year.’

Roger Bootle from Deloitte and Touche stated: ‘Today’s decision by the MPC to cut interest rates from 5.75% to 5.5% is the first step in a prolonged period of monetary easing that could see rates fall very sharply. I previously thought that rates would drop to 5%, but I now think that they could eventually be cut all the way to 4%. Inflation is likely to rise further in the coming months. However, the rise in interbank interest rates means that the risk of a very sharp and prolonged economic downturn is growing by the day.’

A spokesman from Bear Stearns said: ‘We expect another cut in January, with rates to target 5% by the second quarter. UK rates should be at 4.5% by the end of 2008, possibly even lower if the downturn is more severe. This has been a cut to alleviate the credit crunch and provide a rescue remedy for growth. Lower rates should help to put a prop under the UK housing market.’

Tom Smith
10t December 2007