House Tipping Point On The Way

Figures from HM Revenue and Customs have indicated that the number of properties sold in England, Wales and Northern Ireland was at its highest point since the late eighties.

During 2006-7 the number of properties being exchanged was 1,859,000. The number of sales was up by 11% compared with then figure for the previous twelve months. House prices went up by the same percentage and are growing at more than their average rate over the long term.

The number of homes sold at the last peak in 1988 was 2,148,000 for England and Wales. In 1989 sales of property slumped by 25% and the house price boom that had run for six years fizzled out after the Bank’s base rate was pushed up and mortgage rates followed suit.

That crash in house prices in 1989 came as a shock to most of the nation who had seen house prices only going upwards for the previous thirty years. The Nationwide BS House Price Index showed that average house prices in the UK had gone up every year from 1955. But 1989 changed all that and house prices fell by 11% and it was 1998 before house prices reached the same levels as 1989.

The early nineties became the period of negative equity for many people, with many houses worth less than the mortgages owed on them. Unemployment went up and the recession bit. With homeowners finding it difficult to make their mortgage repayments, many fell into arrears and there was a rise in repossessions. Mortgage lenders had a glut of properties under their ownership and off they went at auction at bargain prices. Between 1991 and 1998 over 400,000 homes were repossessed and a million people were left without a home.

A lot of the sequence of events that led up to the 1989 house-price crash are being repeated in the current situation. The parallels are undeniable: house prices are out of reach of first-time buyers; house prices seems to be going upwards for ever; interest rates are on the increase; and mortgage rates are on the rise too. Also, the ratio of house prices to incomes is now at its record level, and customer debt is an ever-growing problem in this country. The noises coming out of the Bank of England suggest strongly that interest rate rises have not finished yet – there’s almost been a promise that there will be another quarter point rise in July. And, most strikingly of all, repossessions have started to rise again.

Property prices on average are still on the up and have been for eleven years, but it sure looks unsustainable. Many experts are still saying that they do not believe there will be a house price crash, but more of a gentle deflation. There is so much talk of the possibility, however, that it’s hard to see people continuing to fork out large sums for houses and the repayments at such high levels, when a downturn may indeed be just around the corner. The tipping point must be in sight. It’s just a question of how steep the drop is going to be on the other side.

Tom Smith
17th July 2007

Tags: bust, Mortgages, england, bank, prices, negative, drop, boom, equity, increase

Housing Market Cools

It seems that the UK property market may be cooling at last, as estate agents are reporting that there has been an increase in properties coming up for sale. In the last few months that number of sellers has increased, but interest from buyers has taken a downward turn.

One online agency reported that the number of properties for sale has risen by over 13% in April, far above expectations. Another internet agency said that it had seen an increase in properties on the market by nearly 20% compared with the same time a year before. The trend appears to be the same across the market.

Although the time of year does see an increase in properties on the market, this time the numbers seem higher than usual. The shortage of housing stock that has had an influence on the way the market has risen seems to be reducing. The sellers’ market looks as though it is coming to an end, and the market may be close to its peak.

It seems that properties in the £150,000-£350,000 price bracket are having the toughest time, where affordability is tight and the slowdown is likely to bite hardest. First-time buyers are finding it extremely difficult to get into the market as property has been pushed further beyond their reach.

Another influence on the number of properties coming to market has been the wish to avoid the need for Home Information Packs (HIPs) in the lead up to their planned introduction of 1 June, and again in the lead up to the new date of 1 August.

Bank of England mortgage figure approval figures reached a twelve-month low in April at 107,000.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors believed that the HIPS, the continued increase in house prices and the increase in interest rates have combined to lead bring about a cooling of the market.

Estate agents believe that HIPs are single biggest reason for the increase in properties coming to market. These look to be extremely unpopular with sellers who will have to go to more trouble than before and, of course, pay for the packs.

Buyers, however, will see benefits with all the information they need in a single accessible pack. The uncertainty surrounding the introduction of HIPs has led to confusion, especially with the change in emphasis by the government, who said that the Packs would only be applicable to homes with four or bedrooms when the new date was announced.

Since then there has been even more confusion with a recent comment that there will be enough trained energy assessors by 1 August to encompass three bedroom houses. The government maintain that they announced that houses of smaller size will be included in the scheme as soon as enough assessors are available. If that happens by 1 August then three-bedrooms homes are likely to be included.

The general economy remains strong and interest in property is liable to remain so too. When confusion over HIPs dies down in the coming months, we are likely to see a return to normal trends.

Tom Smith
8th July 2007

Tags: rise, hips, slow, england, prices